Treasury yields declined across the curve, with the 10-year and 30-year yield dropping 4 bps and 2 bps, respectively. Meanwhile, the 10-year municipal yield fell 3 bps, and the 30-year yield remained flat. Looking ahead, Thursday brings Jobless Claims data; after last week’s unexpected surge to 231K, consensus expects a return to 215K. Thursday also features Existing Home Sales, forecasted to slow to a rate of 4.20 million for January, down from December’s 4.35 million. Additionally, markets await Retail Sales on Tuesday and CPI on Friday, both originally scheduled for January but delayed by the government shutdown. Retail Sales are expected to show a solid 0.4% rise, while consensus for CPI anticipates stable inflation, with both total and core rising 0.3% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. Federal funds futures continue to price approximately two rate cuts in 2026.

Treasury yields were mixed across the curve, with the 1-year and 5-year falling by 5 bps, while the 20-year and 30-year rose by 4 and 5 bps, respectively. In contrast, municipal yields fell by 3 to 4 bps across the 1, 5 and 10-year maturities, while the long end remained relatively flat with the 20-year falling just 1 bp and the 30-year unchanged. Looking ahead, Tuesday brings JOLTS data, where December job openings are projected at 7.245 million following November’s lower-than-expected 7.15 million, while weekly jobless claims are expected to tick up to 212k from 209k last Thursday. The week wraps up with Consumer Sentiment on Friday. It is expected to fade to 55.5, suggesting last month’s uptick to 56.4 was overdone. Markets are currently pricing in a 91.1% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged again at the March 18th meeting.